Early rains don’t signal start of rainy season, FG warns

The Federal Government has warned Nigerians, especially farmers and others engaged in rain-dependent activities, not to mistake the recent rainfall recorded in parts of the country for the official start of the 2026 rainy season.

The Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, issued the caution on Tuesday in Abuja at the public presentation of the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction and the 2025 State of the Climate in Nigeria.

Keyamo noted that although some areas in the southern part of the country had already experienced rainfall, such occurrences did not signal the formal onset of the rainy season.

“We have already seen some significant rains across the southern parts of the country this year. Let me reiterate that these should not be taken to mean that the rainy season has started in these places,” he said.

He advised those involved in rain-fed agriculture and other rainfall-dependent activities to rely on the predicted onset dates contained in the SCP document or seek guidance from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet).

“Those engaged in rain-fed agriculture and other rainfall-dependent activities in Nigeria are therefore advised to refer to the predicted onset dates in this publication or consult NiMet for proper guidance,” Keyamo added.

The minister described the Seasonal Climate Prediction as a vital planning tool for national development and disaster risk reduction, noting that it had become an annual exercise of NiMet and the ministry.

I am delighted to welcome you to the public presentation of the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction and 2025 State of the Climate in Nigeria. In recent years, NiMet has received testimonies and commendations on how the use of SCP information has contributed to improved crop yield and helped in disaster risk mitigation and reduction,” he said.

According to him, feedback from both public and private sector stakeholders showed that NiMet’s early warning services were making positive contributions to Nigeria’s socio-economic development.

Keyamo further stressed that climate variability and extreme weather events had become defining realities of modern times, with far-reaching implications for aviation safety, food security, infrastructure development, economic planning and national security.

“Globally, there are hardly any days without news of extreme weather events such as destructive thunderstorms, heatwaves, droughts, windstorms and sandstorms. These realities demand that governments place climate science, data and early warning systems at the heart of national planning,” he said.

He explained that the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction was developed using global best practices in meteorology and climate science, combining weather data, long-term climatology and key global climate drivers.

“The 2026 SCP is built on global best practices, using indicators such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole. For 2026, these indicators point to a predominantly neutral ENSO phase, with implications for rainfall distribution, temperature patterns and sectoral risks across Nigeria,” Keyamo said.

He added that the scientific robustness of the forecast ensured it remained a reliable reference for policy formulation, investment planning and risk management across all levels of government and the private sector.

Culled from punch