Nigeria must create 27 million jobs to avert 30% unemployment spike – NESG

Nigeria must create at least 27 million new formal jobs within the next five years or risk a sharp rise in unemployment and underemployment to 30 per cent, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group has warned.

The warning is contained in the NESG’s Jobs and Productivity Report, published on its website on Monday, on the sidelines of the group’s 31st summit (NES#31) in Abuja.

The report describes the next half-decade as a “critical” window for stabilising the labour market and delivering inclusive growth as the country’s working-age population is projected to hit 168 million by 2030.

“With the working-age population projected to reach 168 million by 2030, the country faces a defining challenge: to create 27 million new formal jobs or risk unemployment and underemployment rates doubling to 30 per cent”

Jobs and productivity are central to Nigeria’s economic development,” the report states, adding that failure to generate tens of millions of formal roles will leave the economy unable to absorb its rapidly expanding youth cohort.

“Achieving this will be crucial to absorbing new entrants into the labour market and gradually transitioning workers currently engaged in low-productivity, informal jobs.”

It identified several key obstacles to employment expansion, including a shallow private sector base, skills mismatch, a weak education system, and jobless growth patterns that have limited the capacity of industries to absorb Nigeria’s growing youth population.

The NESG also highlighted regulatory bottlenecks and infrastructure deficits as major constraints to business competitiveness, urging the government to implement comprehensive reforms to unlock private sector-led growth.

The group identified key constraints, including a shallow private sector base, skills mismatches, shortcomings in the education system, pervasive informality and “jobless growth” that fails to translate GDP gains into employment.

It also highlighted regulatory bottlenecks and infrastructure deficits as major barriers to competitiveness and firm expansion.

To reverse the trend, the think-tank urged coordinated action across government and industry, pointing to manufacturing, agriculture, digital technology and services as priority sectors capable of delivering large-scale employment if supported by the right policies.

“Key sectors that should drive formal job creation include manufacturing (including agro-processing), construction, information and communications technology (ICT) and professional services,” it recommended.

“These sectors have the capacity to absorb labour from low-productivity sectors and drive the country’s structural transformation process. Collectively, they are expected to contribute to 35% (9.7 million) of new formal jobs, while manufacturing alone will account for 21% of new jobs created during the period.”

To create jobs, the report urged that “Nigeria must address the problems of low productivity and weak private sector growth in a coordinated and sustained manner.

More urgent than ever, Nigeria needs a Jobs and Productivity Agenda to create decent jobs and raise productivity across the economy.

“The success of this agenda will depend on stakeholder collaboration, robust data architecture, continuous monitoring and evaluation and, more importantly, a firm commitment by the government to implement key reforms.”

The report also details a Nigeria Works Framework to help deliver better jobs and higher productivity.

The framework is built on six strategic pillars and interventions needed to raise productivity, including “Skills for Productivity, Sectoral Engines of Job Growth, Enterprise-Led Growth, Data, Institutions and Accountability, and Productivity for Prosperity.”

NESG explained that the report assesses the state of jobs and productivity in Nigeria, drawing on data analysis, scenario modelling, case studies and stakeholder interviews

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